Betting Systems – The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
The Wizard of Odds wrote a great article about how betting systems don’t work when trying to beat casino games. The plain fact is that casino games have a mathematical house edge that can’t be overcome by raising and lowering your bets based on winning streaks, hunches, how much you’ve lost up until a certain point, or how much you’ve up until a certain point. Some exceptions exist, like counting cards in blackjack. But for the most part, you’ll eventually lose all your money on casino games if you play long enough.
One of my favorite betting systems to mock is the Martingale system. In this system, you try to guarantee yourself a win by doubling your bet after every loss. Eventually you’re bound to win, and when you do, you’ll win back your original losses plus one betting unit. For example, if you’re playing roulette, you’d bet on black, which pays out at even odds. (You bet $1 to win $1 on that bet.) If you win, you pocket the dollar you’ve done. If you lose, you bet $2 on black on the next spin. If you win, then you’re up $1. If you lose, you now bet $4. This time if you win, you’re up $1. (Because you’ve lost the three previous bets.) You continue like this until you’re ahead, and you start over at your base betting limit every time you win.
The problem with the Martingale system is that it doesn’t work in the long run. For one thing, doubling up your bet doesn’t seem like a big deal after three bets, but what does your bet have to be after six bets? Or how about after twelve bets?
- $1
- $2
- $4
- $8
- $16
- $32
- $64
- $128
- $256
- $512
- $1024
- $2048
Keep in mind that by the time you reach that 12th bet, you’re risking that $2048 in order to get a net win of $1. Does that sound like a good bet?
But it’s extremely unlikely to lose twelve times in a row, you say. If you really believe that, then you probably haven’t gambled very much. A streak like that can and will happen way more often than you think.
And finally, even if you had the bankroll for that betting progression, most casinos have betting limits on the roulette games. A roulette game with a $1 minimum usually has a maximum bet of $500. That means if you lose nine times in a row, you can’t even continue your progression.
What you really need is to find a sports betting system that works. Savvy bettors can figure out baseball betting systems that work, because they’re based on solid mathematics. It’s anybody’s guess how long a bookie will let you continue to bet with him if you’re winning all the time though.